KnowledgeNearing Saturation
Trust Score:
75

MMLU-Pro

MMLU rebuilt to fix its flaws: 10 options instead of 4, trivia and label noise filtered out, and reasoning-heavy questions that reward chain-of-thought.

Launched: Refresh: static
Status Assessment (nearing-saturation):

Frontier models cluster in the high 80s on MMLU-Pro by 2025–26 (leaderboards put the top ~89–90%), but cleaner labels and 10-option questions push the effective ceiling above MMLU's ~90%, so it still separates strong models where MMLU cannot. The 16–33 point accuracy drop it induced over MMLU is eroding; the trajectory points at saturation within a generation or two, hence nearing-saturation rather than active.

Performance Timeline

Longitudinal progression of model scores against human baselines.

Performance & Historical Trajectory

Empirical score progression across model release dates and evaluation rounds.

Independent Vendor-Reported Human Baseline (86.2%)
ModelScoreDateSource TypeProvenance
Gemini 1.5 Pro69%2024-05-14independentSource ↗
GPT-4o72.6%2024-05-13independentSource ↗
GPT-4-Turbo63.7%2024-04-09independentSource ↗
Claude 3 Opus68.5%2024-03-04independentSource ↗

Human Baseline & Difficulty Horizon

Calibrated human reference points, specialist benchmarks, and ceiling thresholds.
Measured Human Score86.2%Domain Expert Baseline
Baseline Protocol & Interpretation

Domain expert accuracy under expanded 10-choice formats with reduced random guess baseline (10%).

Metric & Scoring Methodology

Verification protocols, aggregation formulas, and specialized metric variants.
Primary Metric:accuracy, 10-option multiple choice (%)
Scoring Engine:exact-match

Dataset & Compute Cost

Evaluation volume, public availability, API pricing, and local hardware requirements.
Total Dataset Size12,032Annotated evaluation items
Public Test SetPublicOpenly mirrored on repositories
Access GatingOpen AccessUnrestricted download
Evaluation LicenseOpen AccessDataset usage and redistribution terms
Frontier API Compute Cost:

$5 – $20 USD for full benchmark evaluation run on frontier APIs.

Recommended Local GPU Setup:

1x NVIDIA RTX 4090 (24GB) or A100 (40GB/80GB) via vLLM / SGLang

Official Dataset & Benchmark Files:Download / View Dataset Repository ↗

How to Run & Reproduce

Standardized evaluation protocols, CLI commands, and reproducible runner templates.
Prompt Regimezero-shot
Reasoning Modedirect
Sampling Temp0
Pass@k Budgetk = 1
Tools & SandboxPure Text
Scoring Verifierexact-match
Option AEleutherAI LM-Evaluation-Harness (Open-Weight Models)
lm_eval --model hf --model_args pretrained=<model_path> --tasks mmlu-pro --batch_size auto
Option BOpenCompass Evaluation Framework
opencompass --datasets mmlu-pro --models <model_config>
Python APIDeterministic Inference Loop Snippet
# Standard API Evaluation Loop
from openai import OpenAI

client = OpenAI()
response = client.chat.completions.create(
    model="gpt-4o",
    messages=[{"role": "user", "content": prompt}],
    temperature=0.0,
)
Standardized Reporting Requirement:

When publishing results for MMLU-Pro, always report the exact prompt template, few-shot exemplar ordering, sampling temperature (temperature=0), maximum reasoning budget tokens, and the precise timestamped model snapshot ID.

Contamination & Memorization Analysis

Audit of pretraining exposure risks, memorization vectors, and refresh policies.
Overall Contamination Risk:MEDIUM
Refresh Cadence:

Static fixed snapshot

Test Set Exposure:

Public on web / HuggingFace